How we decide where to ask people to campaign
Here’s my latest report for Liberal Democrat members and supporters. These reports also appear on the party website.
Why it matters
A stark fact from this May’s local elections: just 97 more people switching from our opponents to us would have given us outright control of three more local councils.
That is the brutal reality of first past the post elections. Votes in the key places count for much more than votes in safe seats and in lost causes.
It is why we want to get rid of first past the post. To do that, we first have to win under first past the post. That means concentrating our efforts where they can make the most difference to how many seats we win.
Asking people to help in the right places
Having people from other areas come to help them is a key part of any successful target seat campaign at a general election. It is also the best way to value and respect people’s time – by directing it to where it will have the most impact.
But asking people to go to the right places is not straightforward and it is something we did not get right in 2019. So here is how we are approaching the task this time around.
Running through all this is a simple dilemma. For five general elections in a row, the party has been too optimistic about how many seats it was sensible to target (and although there was rightly lots of wisdom after the event, much of the pressure internally from members during each of those campaigns was to be more optimistic, not less).
Yet the Conservatives, our main opponents in our target seats, are currently polling at a level which, if reflected on polling day, will see them get their worst result since the roll out of letterboxes.
To guide the campaign through this, a wide range of sources of information therefore is being used: what the results on the new boundaries would have been in 2019, local election and devolved bodies election results since then, all the public MRPs published (more than 10 already!) with their seat-by-seat figures, our own private polling and of course the data coming in from our canvassers on the doors and phones.
As well as using all those sources of information to get a balanced overall view of our best prospects, we then have to divide up possible help sensibly. Each target seat is allocated a number of other constituencies where members and supporters are asked to help them.
Because we have to balance the amount of help to each place accordingly – and because of course transport options and travel times vary depending on where in a constituency you live or work – this sometimes means that the seat people are being asked to help is not the nearest or quickest to get to.
If there is another seat you would like to head to because it is easier to get to, because a group of friends are also campaigning there or to return some favours for previous help in a local election, by all means drop an email to campaigners@libdems.org.uk and the team can confirm if it is indeed a seat we are in with a serious chance of winning and encouraging people to go to.
If you cannot make it in person, help on the phones is also very valuable. You can sign up for our group phoning sessions here or again email campaigners@libdems.org.uk to be put in touch with the local team in a target seat who can give you details of who to phone.
Building our capacity
Outside those target seats the election is providing an important opportunity to build up our campaign capacity so that we can win locally in future elections.
It is great to see such a wide range of local parties topping our weekly league tables for the most new members recruited, for example.
Of course, one great way to get new people involved is to make them part of a winning campaign – and learning from seeing a full-on campaign up close – by taking them to help in a target seat…
But wherever you are campaigning over the next few weeks, and whether your support is coming in person, over the phone or financially, many thanks to everyone for all the campaigning.
Federal Board
Since my last report we’ve had both the scheduled May Federal Board meeting and then also an extra one to agree some urgent matters following the calling of the general election.
The upshot of these meetings is that we’re back to a plan for a full-length conference in Brighton this September.
A special general election protocol has been agreed for our independent complaints process, in particular so that relevant cases can be prioritised or postponed until after polling day.
Prue Bray has been appointed chair of the Disciplinary Sub-Group (DSG), while Greg Foster and Beth Fisher have been respectively re-appointed and appointed to the DSG.
Many thanks to the outgoing DSG chair, Candy Piercy, for all her hard work in the post, and playing an essential role in getting our independent complaints process up and running.
There is currently one vacancy each on the DSG and in the federal appointees to the Federal Appeals Panel (FAP), which the Board will look to start filling after the general election.
We welcome the review of our last internal elections, carried out by Nick Manners, and agreed next steps, including putting proposals for relevant rules changes to the Spring 2025 conference.
Our 2025 Federal Budget timetable was postponed for the moment at our Board meeting before the election was called, and we will need to return to this after the election to work out a new practical timetable.
Do you have questions on any of this report, or other Lib Dem matters? Then please drop me a line on president@libdems.org.uk. Do also get in touch if you would like to invite me to do a Zoom call with your local party or party body.
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