Double Lib Dem by-election gain from Conservatives
After Tuesday’s by-election result, Thursday brings another three council by-elections along with the two Parliamentary by-elections in Copeland and Stoke.
Continuing the Liberal Democrat pattern of polarising psephology, the distant and falling vote share in Tuesday’s contest has been followed by two massive gains from the Conservatives.
Either the Liberal Democrats are finishing way short of the winning post, or way beyond it. Just not close to it.
Liberal Democrat GAIN Barton (Kettering) from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
Congratulations to Andrew Dutton and the team in a ward the party has not even contested the three previous times it has come up for election since being created (although the party has won in the area further ago in the past under different boundaries). This win makes for the first Lib Dem councillor on Kettering Council since 2003, and the first Lib Dem win in elections to that council since 1999.
Liberal Democrat GAIN Charterlands (South Hams) from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
Charterlands (South Hams) result:
LDEM: 46.1% (+46.1)
CON: 39.3% (-25.0)
LAB: 10.7% (+10.7)
GRN: 3.9% (-15.6)
No Ind unlike previous.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
The Lib Dem winner here is Elizabeth Huntley, who has worked with David Attenborough on wildlife documentaries:
Elizabeth Huntley, Bigbury-on-Sea, is standing for the Liberal Democrats. Elizabeth lives with her husband and is a Bigbury Parish Councillor. She has a degree in English and trained as a school teacher.
However Elizabeth then pursued a career making wildlife documentaries working with David Attenborough and Tony Soper amongst others. She also ran a small hotel and restaurant in Bath for 30 years.
Elizabeth is part of the Bigbury Neighbourhood Plan team and is very aware of the unwanted developments in the ward – including Modbury, Kingston, Ringmore and St Anns Chapel.
If elected she will ‘do everything I can to support our local communities fighting these schemes’. She will also ‘oppose planned increased car parking charges which would damage the small independent shops and businesses in our market towns, especially Modbury’.
Elizabeth Huntley is the only candidate that lives in the Charterlands Ward. [South Hams Gazette]
No Lib Dem gain but a good vote share increase again in the final council by-election of the night:
Conservative HOLD Chigwell Village (Epping Forest).
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) result:
CON: 76.0% (+13.6)
LDEM: 24.0% (+20.5)
No Lab and Grn unlike prev.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 23, 2017
Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election result
Now for the Parliamentary by-elections, where Liberal Democrats holding our deposit regularly is not glamorous progress, but it is still very much progress. Especially when this comes after by-election campaigns in which the party put in considerably less effort in terms of money, staff and appeals for voluntary help than it did in Richmond and Witney (a decision based on both the party’s prospects in the seats and the imminence of the major round of local elections in May), and where the contests were in seats which voted heavily for Leave and where the party has no local government base.
In Stoke, it wasn’t only a case of a held deposit. The Liberal Democrats also scored the biggest vote increase for any party:
#Stokebyelection result:
LAB 37.1 (-2.2)
UKIP 24.7 (+2.0)
CON 24.3 (+1.8)
LD 9.8 (+5.6)
GRN 1.4 (-2.2)
OTH 2.6LAB-UKIP swing 2.1%
TO 38.1— Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017
How the share of the vote in Stoke-on-Trent Central changed from the general election to the by-election. pic.twitter.com/AWk6Av6tb4
— Ian Jones (@ian_a_jones) February 24, 2017
Labour winning a Parliamentary by-election because main rival candidate melted down during campaign didn't turn out so well in 1983..
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) February 24, 2017
2/ Nevertheless, an opposition party losing vote share in a by-election is never a good result, especially in its own seat
— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) February 24, 2017
Big blow for #UKIP . Source told me couple of weeks ago: “If we can’t win there we are in big trouble. It is prime UKIP territory." #stoke https://t.co/8aAPDQ1hQz
— Ben Glaze (@benglaze) February 24, 2017
Nuttall storms out of Stoke count without making a concession speech. Graceless to the last. https://t.co/clz1Gkgszl
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 24, 2017
Copeland by-election result
A held deposit and vote increase in Copeland too:
Copeland, result:
CON: 44.3% (+8.5)
LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)
LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)
IND: 2.6% (+2.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-1.3)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017
Lib Dems double share of vote in #Copeland and beat UKIP into fourth place
— Lib Dem Press Office (@LibDemPress) February 24, 2017
Forget all the spin, Copeland is a big win for the Conservatives – here’s why (via @NCPoliticsUK) pic.twitter.com/2FikmXVYii
— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) February 24, 2017
Real worry for Labour from Copeland is that NHS didn’t save them even though they went on it & local hospital’s maternity unit is in danger
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) February 24, 2017
A marmalade dropper from John Curtice, the swing to the Tories in Copeland was bigger than what the national polls are currently suggesting
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) February 24, 2017
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.
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