6 initial thoughts on the Lib Dem local election performance
What to make of the Liberal Democrat performance in the 2017 local elections? Here are six parts of an answer to that:
Good/bad news for @LibDems #1 good news – doing much better in places which voted Remain; bad news – limits party's scope for gaining MPs
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
Good/bad news for @LibDems #2 good news – vote share up in England; bad news – seats down, which is same combo as 2010 general election
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
LD vote up, Con vote up even more (thanks to Ukip collapse), Lab vote down. Suggests #GE2017 @LibDems target seats vs Labour interesting
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
If BBC vote share projection right, will be highest Lib Dem local election vote share for 7 years, and up 4% on 2013, up 3% on last year.
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
One final LD thought – key question will be how many seats like this where LD secured swing from Cons and have #GE2017 hopes https://t.co/Lb4bP6wM4n
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
Lib Dems local election vote share over-performance compared to national polls is its highest since 2001 #ObscurePsephology
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
Oh and:
Remember: if Labour loses seats overall, will be first time since records began that official opposition has lost seats three years in a row
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 5, 2017
Psst, would you like to see my collection of spreadsheets? https://t.co/QDL6y8FwHB
— Mark Pack 🔶 (@markpack) May 4, 2017
Much more analysis will be in the next edition of my email newsletter, Liberal Democrat Newswire, going out as soon as I’ve had a chance to write it. [Update: It’s now out and online here.]
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