Limited Lib Dem progress on balance in this week’s by-elections
Ten council by-elections this week, and mixed signs of Liberal Democrat progress. You won’t find headlines here about the party gaining seats this week in other sorts of elections because of the reasons I’ve explained previously – paying attention to such results is deeply misleading about the party’s prospects.
But back to the principal council by-elections which are worth paying attention to for drawing out more general trends.
Perhaps the most interesting contest from a Lib Dem perspective was in Leicester, taking place in a ward that the party held way back when it ran the city. By 2015, however, the party had slumped to fourth in the ward with one sixth of the voters of the winner.
So the result this week is rather a promising step, leap and jump back towards past glory days:
Eyres Monsell (Leicester) result:
LAB: 53.2% (+10.6)
LDEM: 30.6% (+23.1)
CON: 16.3% (-1.9)Labour HOLD.
No UKIP (-25.8) as prev.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Various signs of progress in five other wards too:
Plaid Cymru HOLD Bryn-côch South (Neath Port Talbot).
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Bryn-côch South (Neath Port Talbot) result:
PC: 49.5% (+4.5)
LAB: 28.8% (+4.5)
CON: 9.9% (-9.5)
LDEM: 8.7% (+3.3)
UKIP: 3.1% (+3.1)PC HOLD.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Labour HOLD Rutherglen Central and North (South Lanarkshire).
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Rutherglen Central & North (South Lanarkshire) first prefs:
LAB: 38.5% (+7.5) HOLD.
SNP: 27.4% (-12.0)
LDEM: 18.2% (+8.9)
CON: 12.1% (-4.2)
GRN: 2.9% (-1.1)
UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Bishops Frome and Cradley (Herefordshire) result:
GRN: 45.3% (+13.9)
CON: 28.8% (-39.8)
LDEM: 24.1% (+24.1)
LAB: 1.8% (+1.8)Green GAIN from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Chalford (Stroud) result:
CON: 45.2% (+8.6) HOLD.
LAB: 25.4% (-6.1)
GRN: 20.6% (-11.3)
LDEM: 8.8% (+8.8)Chgs. w/ 2016
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Wakefield West (Wakefield) result:
LAB: 49.6% (+7.1) HOLD.
CON: 41.4% (+12.5)
YORK: 6.9% (+6.9)
LDEM: 2.0% (+2.0)No UKIP (-22.3), Grn (-5.0) and TUSC (-1.2) as prev.
Chgs. w/ 2015.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 24, 2017
Three wards, however, saw the party fall back:
Grumbolds Ash with Avening (Cotswold) result:
CON: 64.7% (-6.8)
LDEM: 21.0% (-7.6)
LAB: 14.3% (+14.3)Conservative HOLD.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Labour HOLD Parkfield & Oxbridge (Stockton-on-Tees).
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Parkfield & Oxbridge (Stockton-on-Tees) result:
LAB: 54.7% (+2.2)
CON: 30.8% (-1.1)
IND: 11.7% (+11.7)
LDEM: 2.8% (-2.9)No UKIP (-9.9) as prev.
Chgs. w/ 2016— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Conservative HOLD Perth City South (Perth & Kinross).
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 23, 2017
Perth City South (Perth & Kinross) result:
SNP: 32.1% (+6.3)
CON: 31.2% (+6.0) HOLD.
LDEM: 28.8% (-5.9)
LAB: 5.7% (-0.7)
GRN: 1.8% (-1.2)
IND: 0.5% (+0.5)Con elected after vote transfers.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 24, 2017
And one ward had no Liberal Democrat candidate:
St Margaret's-at-Cliffe (Dover) result:
CON: 70.5% (+17.7) HOLD
LAB: 29.5% (+7.6)No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 24, 2017
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.
Watch out next week for a by-election in the Bridgemary North Ward of Gosport BC – a rock-solid Labour seat which has never before seen a Liberal Democrat candidate… until now. 2016 result was Labour 70%, Conservative 30%. It will be very different on 30th November!
Great! You were absolutely right.