Three constituency polls show Lib Dem vote up very sharply in key seats
Three constituency polls commissioned by The Observer are out, all in heavily Remain areas and all showing a massive growth in Liberal Democrat support.
In all three cases, it looks too that tactical voting by erstwhile Labour supporters may well be key to the result. How much do they want to defeat the Conservatives in those constituencies?
Finchley and Golders Green
This is the seat being fought by Luciana Berger, which has already been polled once for this campaign. The new poll shows:
Finchley & Golders Green constituency voting intention:
CON: 46% (-1)
LDEM: 32% (+25)
LAB: 19% (-25)via @DeltapollUK, 07 – 13 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 16, 2019
Kensington
The constituency where Sam Gyimah is standing:
Kensington constituency voting intention:
CON: 36% (-6)
LDEM: 33% (+21)
LAB: 27% (-16)via @DeltapollUK, 07 – 13 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017https://t.co/WLGqFUxtTZ— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 16, 2019
Wimbledon
Paul Kohler is the Liberal Democrat candidate here.
Wimbledon constituency voting intention:
CON: 38% (-8)
LDEM: 36% (+21)
LAB: 23% (-13)via @DeltapollUK, 07 – 13 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017https://t.co/WLGqFUfT2r— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 16, 2019
Labour tactical voters key to beating Conservatives
The full tactical squeeze options in 3 London seats @DeltapollUK for Observer: Lib Dems can win but Lab can't https://t.co/DueVEL0bEU pic.twitter.com/XgTppi3vQ3
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 16, 2019
To get that message out to Labour voters in those seats, of course, Lib Dems choosing also to target their campaigning in such seats is important.
I get annoyed at seeing the polls showing Tories way up Labour up us down (I know we are aiming for certain ones) a squeeze. Johnson Corbyn are not fit to govern but yet they ride high in the polls. I consider do they (pollsters) fix the result by going to ,say, leave areas to allow Tories up and vice versa for Labour, steer the question a certain way to get the result they want. To me the results can push people into saying ‘oh well are in the lead we might well vote for them ‘, it influences the way people vote. They should not be allowed in the period of a GE.
Looks as though this polling was done without naming the candidates, whereas the previous Finchley and Golders Green poll did mention candidates and hence the Lib Dem lead in that one. One could quite readily see Berger’s candidacy in tipping the balance in Lib Dem balance due to her popularity in the Jewish community.
Would be interesting to see what the impact of naming candidates in other two too, especially Ken & Chel as Dent Coad is meant to have some popularity there due to her campaigning on Grenfell. While Gymiah will surely more popular with liberal Tories who could still be down for voting Tory or undecided.