Double Lib Dem by-election gains, including from Conservatives in Michael Gove’s seat
Four principal authority council by-elections this week, featuring three Liberal Democrat candidates – which is up one on the last time these seats were up.
First up is a Liberal Democrat gain from independents:
The results are in and Liberal Democrat @Paulaspenceley has been announced as the councillor for Heybridge West. She’s the first Liberal Democrat councillor in Maldon for 23 years. @MaldonNubNews pic.twitter.com/2yyFmU9kp6
— Ben Shahrabi (@BenShahrabi) April 14, 2022
Heybridge West (Maldon) council by-election result:
LDEM: 44.8% (+44.8)
CON: 18.4% (-21.2)
IND (Burwood): 16.0% (+16.0)
IND (Perry): 12.4% (+12.4)
LAB: 8.4% (+8.4)No other Ind(s) (-60.4) as prev.
Votes cast: 581
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 14, 2022
Congratulations to Paula Spenceley and the team! Including…
Another polling day, another LibDem by-election win.
Is it particularly childish of me to smirk at the fact this is the 69th polling day I've run for successful candidates…
— Mary Regnier-Wilson 🔶 (@MaryRegW) April 14, 2022
Quite the demonstration too of the value of standing where we’ve not stood before.
Next up a rare Labour gain from the Conservatives:
West Auckland (Durham) council by-election result:
LAB: 56.3% (+12.2)
CON: 32.6% (-10.2)
IND: 11.0% (+11.0)No other Ind (-13.0) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,697
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 14, 2022
And then another spectacular Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives, in Michael Gove‘s constituency no less:
Bisley and West End (Surrey Heath) council by-election result:
LDEM: 66.0% (+48.8)
CON: 34.0% (-0.8)No Ind (-31.8), UKIP (-9.3) and Lab (-6.9) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,948
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 14, 2022
Many congratulations to Liz Noble!
Her win means the Conservatives no longer have a majority on the council.
— Surrey Heath LibDems 🇺🇦 (@SurreyHeathLDs) April 14, 2022
Elsewhere:
Brockworth East (Tewkesbury) council by-election result:
IND: 69.5% (+69.5)
CON: 15.3% (-0.9)
LDEM: 15.3% (+2.5)No other Ind(s) (-65.9) and Lab (-5.1) as prev.
Votes cast: 498
Independent GAIN from Independent.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 14, 2022
Thank you to Gilbert Yates for standing and making sure the party name was on the ballot paper for all the voters to see.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections. But this did get my attention:
BY-ELECTION RESULT
Hatfield TC, Briars
Lib Dem – 251
Lab – 200
Con – 151
Ind – 53Lib Dem GAIN from Labour despite huge opposition campaign. Great job!
Huge congratulations to Helena Goldwater! pic.twitter.com/hjBozEtYOL
— ALDC (@ALDC) April 14, 2022
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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Some good results which bodes well for May.
The seats have to be consolidated for the next election.ESPECIALLY GOVES SEAT
The West Auckland result was in a two seat ward where Labour topped the poll and the Tory who caused the by-election was in second place. So not such a spectacular gain as appears at first sight