Political

Conservatives lose both seats up for election in Plymouth

Only two principal authority council by-election this week. Both in Plymouth and both, hooray, with Liberal Democrat candidates. That’s one up on the last time these seats were up.

It’s an area where the Conservative group has been highly fractious and unstable. It’s now lost another two councillors:

Thank you to Colin Mackenzie for standing for the Lib Dems.

Mike Gillbard was the Lib Dem candidate – thank you.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, this by-election at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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