Sarah Dyke wins Somerton and Frome with 29% swing

Three Parliamentary by-elections to go with three principal authority local by-elections this week, and the big news for the Lib Dems was pretty obvious from just after the polls closed:

And after a bit of election count observation all looks set for Sarah Dyke to become an MP:

Good news for Lib Dem prospects across the West Country, as Daisy Cooper has pointed out:

And of course there’s a by-election stunt:

A win too at local government:

Congratulations to new councillor David Evans and the team.

A shame not to see a Lib Dem candidate as there was one in this ward in May.

Blaise Baquiche was the Lib Dem candidate. Thank you to him and his team.

Thank you to the Lib Dem candidate Matt Walker and the team there.

Thank you to Scott Butler for being the Lib Dem candidate.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

UPDATES:

• It’s notable how poorly the Rejoin EU candidates have done in Parliamentary by-elections.
• Here’s a bar chart of the results of all the Parliamentary by-elections this Parliament.
• Sarah Dyke has now been able to give her maiden speech.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this did also catch my eye:

Congratulations to Kate Reid and the team.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week: