How we decide where to ask people to campaign

Why it matters

A stark fact from this May’s local elections:  just 97 more people switching from our opponents to us would have given us outright control of three more local councils.

That is the brutal reality of first past the post elections. Votes in the key places count for much more than votes in safe seats and in seats where we are out of the running

It is why we want to get rid of first past the post. To do that, we first have to win under first past the post. That means concentrating our efforts where they can make the most difference to how many seats we win.

A lesson from 1997

Or for a positive example, take a look at these results from the 1997 general election:

Winning seats by 2 votes, 12 votes, 56 votes and 130 votes: it really does matter where you get the votes not just how many votes you get.

Asking people to help in the right places

Having people from other areas come to help them is a key part of any successful target seat campaign at a general election. It is also the best way to value and respect people’s time – by directing it to where it will have the most impact.

But asking people to go to the right places is not straightforward and it is something we did not get right in 2019. So here is how we are approaching the task this time around.

Running through all this is a simple dilemma. For five general elections in a row, the party has been too optimistic about how many seats it was sensible to target (and although there was rightly lots of wisdom after the event, much of the pressure internally from members during each of those campaigns was to be more optimistic, not less). 

Yet the Conservatives, our main opponents in our target seats, are currently polling at a level which, if reflected on polling day, will see them get their worst result since the roll out of letterboxes. 

To guide the campaign through this, a wide range of sources of information therefore is being used: what the results on the new boundaries would have been in 2019, local election and devolved bodies election results since then, all the public MRPs published (more than 10 already!)  with their seat-by-seat figures, our own private polling and of course the data coming in from our canvassers on the doors and phones.

As well as using all those sources of information to get a balanced overall view of our best prospects, we then have to divide up possible help sensibly. Each target seat is allocated a number of other constituencies where members and supporters are asked to help them.

Because we have to balance the amount of help to each place accordingly – and because of course transport options and travel times vary depending on where in a constituency you live or work – this sometimes means that the seat people are being asked to help is not the nearest or quickest to get to. 

If there is another seat you would like to head to because it is easier to get to, because a group of friends are also campaigning there or to return some favours for previous help in a local election, by all means drop an email to campaigners@libdems.org.uk and the team can confirm if it is indeed a seat we are in with a serious chance of winning and encouraging people to go to.

If you cannot make it in person, help on the phones is also very valuable. You can sign up for our group phoning sessions here or again email campaigners@libdems.org.uk to be put in touch with the local team in a target seat who can give you details of who to phone.

Building our capacity

Outside those target seats the election is providing an important opportunity to build up our campaign capacity so that we can win locally in future elections. 

It is great to see such a wide range of local parties topping our weekly league tables for the most new members recruited, for example. 

Of course, one great way to get new people involved is to make them part of a winning campaign – and learning from seeing a full-on campaign up close – by taking them to help in a target seat…

But wherever you are campaigning over the next few weeks, and whether your support is coming in person, over the phone or financially, many thanks to everyone for all the campaigning.